December 29, 2022 • Paul Rodden • Season: 2022 • Episode: 176
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Welcome to The Hydrogen Podcast!
In episode 176, On today’s podcast, I go through my top predictions for 2023 and the hydrogen market. I think 2023 is going to be a big year. And I’ll tell you why, on today’s hydrogen podcast.
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Respectfully,
Paul Rodden
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Transcript:
On today’s podcast, I go through my top predictions for 2023 and the hydrogen market. I think 2023 is going to be a big year. And I’ll tell you why, on today’s hydrogen podcast. So the big questions in the energy industry today are, how is hydrogen the primary driving force behind the evolution of energy? Where is capital being deployed for hydrogen projects globally? And where are the best investment opportunities for early adopters who recognize the importance of hydrogen? I will address the critical issues and give you the information you need to deploy capital. Those are the questions that will unlock the potential of hydrogen. And this podcast will give you the answers. My name is Paul Rodden, and welcome to the hydrogen podcast.
Okay, so my first prediction is that collaborations in 2023, will grow exponentially. Now 2022 saw large collaborations between global players, I think that will become more common as different technology companies reach into the hydrogen market, I really wouldn’t be surprised to see companies like maybe Microsoft, IBM, Apple. Other large technology companies join with maybe electrolyzer companies or fuel cell manufacturers, to further the digital side of hydrogen development. Because, as I’ve said several times on the show, digital solutions are going to be one of the best ways to start lowering development costs and increasing economies of scale. Now, historically, energy companies tried to do everything in house that includes engineering, research and development, and logistics.
And well, I’m sure a lot of that will continue with say large oil and gas companies like Exxon, Shell, and BP. I think you’ll really start to see in this next year, technology companies joining with smaller hydrogen players to get their systems up and running faster than ever before. Okay, my second prediction for 2023 is that FIDs are going to increase. Now 2023 will see FIDs or final investment decisions start to affect global project developments. Electrolytic hydrogen news will continue to grow but hydrocarbon derived hydrogen FIDs first before anything else. Now, in November of this year, the Shell Holland fid marked a huge move forward and hydrogen investment decisions. Now I expect in 2023, we’re going to see other multinational, large oil and gas or energy companies like gas, Uni equinor, Exxon and BP announcing fit. Now, I think that’s especially going to happen in Northern Europe, specifically around the Netherlands, the UK, Germany, France, Spain, and Norway. But what about the rest of the world? Well, the US has several large hydrogen hubs in the planning stage, looking to get their share of the $7 billion in Department of Energy funding from the IRA. And speaking of that, there were nearly 80 projects pitched to the DoE last month. So it’s going to be very interesting to see in the coming weeks, which projects the DOE has picked to get that money. Also, much of the reporting in 2022 dealt with the pre fid stages of project development. Most of those are either feasibility studies, MOU”S and joint ventures, and few of those actually talked about pre feed or feed stages.
And so while I do believe that we’re going to see more fid in 2023, I also think we’re going to see a lot more pre feed and feed stages being announced on upcoming hydrogen developments. and my Number Three prediction for 2023 Is that the green ammonia market will skyrocket. Now, European countries and I’m looking at you Germany, will set the stage for green ammonia and LNG imports for their energy needs. The EU will become more interdependent as large scale electrolytic hydrogen hubs are developed and converted into green ammonia for backbone distribution. And by backbone distribution. I’m talking about the European hydrogen backbone. exports from the Middle East, South Africa, Australia and Canada, I believe will ramp up as well as large corporations such as Siemens, Thyssen Krupp and Nel to be heavy players in the green ammonia market in 2023. Now, I don’t think that prediction is going to be a surprise to anyone. But what’s interesting is the people that I’ve talked to who are making hydrogen development equipment are looking to specifically create new technology to better separate the hydrogen from the nitrogen in ammonia.
And as that technology ramps up and makes it easier to create hydrogen from the ammonia, that will only allow for the green ammonia market to move forward and grow. Okay, so my number four prediction for 2023 Is that syn fuels will become the premium fuel to really kick off the energy transition. So if you don’t know what a syn gas or a syn fuel is, the US Energy Information Administration, or the EIA defines a synthetic fuel as any fuel quote produced from coal, natural gas or biomass feedstocks through chemical conversion. Now, compared to Syncrude products, which is synthetic crude, what I’m really referring to are Fischer tropsch’s fuels or liquids, because they burn much cleaner. Now these syn fuels have almost no particulate emissions, they contain less nitrogen oxide than traditional fuels, and fewer carbon monoxide emissions. Now, this technology works and partners perfectly with the latest developments and hydrogen development and will allow greater energy independence for both isolated states, as well as give new life to countries needing to find a way to be either energy independent or become a fuel exporter.
Now, a lot of the new technologies coming out to make hydrogen from hydrocarbons are really embracing this Fischer tropsch’s methodology. Because with those syn fuels using the FT method, you can make gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, all of which are more energy dense, they burn cleaner and are more efficient. And so if you’re one of the legacy people who don’t want to give up their internal combustion engines, think about it this way, an F T fuel will allow you to go further on a single tank, decrease your emissions and lower your maintenance cost on your engine by burning cleaner. Now, why do I think that goes hand in hand with the hydrogen economy? Well, the best example of that is if we look at Raven Sr. They are a hydrogen development company that’s embracing the Fischer tropsch’s process and looking to make synthetic fuels from biomass municipal solid waste biosolids, industrial waste, sewer, medical waste, and methane. And as the energy transition moves forward, were already set up now with this kind of technology to transition away from liquids fuels, and over to hydrogen and fuel cell technology. Okay, my number five prediction for 2023 Is that the cost of electrolyzers will really start to decrease with billions and backlogged revenue, electrolyzer developers will have to lower costs by both utilizing lower cost materials and increasing their economies of scale. This is going to be critical and lowering electrolytic hydrogen costs, regardless of government subsidies.
Now, obviously, companies like Plug Power already have a huge lead in electrolyzer market share. But there are other multinationals like Siemens, Toshiba and several Chinese manufacturers who are looking to take the winning share of that market in 2023. Now, you also have companies like Bosch who aren’t necessarily making electrolyzers, or fuel cells, but they’re making components for those electrolyzers and fuel cells. Now, with that kind of industry expertise that can really help to start decreasing the cost of electrolyzers. The question is, will there competitors like Siemens be buying those components? Or will they try to make them in house? My number six prediction for 2023 is that carbon intensity numbers will become more prevalent to determine what is clean hydrogen. Now, the IRA is showing the world the most important focus for the energy transition is carbon intensity. Other countries and other corporations, I believe, will begin to follow suit and put their focus on lowering their CI scores, and not simply announcing an electrolytic hydrogen development. I know that new research is going to be coming out probably in 2023, showcasing full lifecycle carbon intensity values for most, if not all, energy developments. And those numbers will include the full lifecycle development for wind farms and solar farms as well.
As LNG, and the various technologies for hydrocarbon derived hydrogen, now, my last prediction may be a bit of a stretch, but I think it’s on the horizon. And that is that using combustion as a means of generating power will start to lose steam. Now, combustion derived energy is extremely inefficient. Batteries and fuel cells are vastly more efficient, as well as a cleaner method of extracting energy from energy carriers. Now, this I think, is going to happen first and heavy duty transportation, followed by passenger vehicles, large power backups, trains, shipping and aviation. So why do I believe this? Well, everything boils down to the efficiency numbers, internal combustion engines, and that includes things like diesel generators, all of them operate at about 30 to 40% efficiency. Now, if we look at batteries, those operate at 100% efficiency, and fuel cells are up to 90%. And so I believe that now with a lot of heavy duty transportation, moving to fuel cells, I think we’re going to start seeing a lot more news start coming out, really highlighting the benefits of switching to fuel cell technology.
All right, that’s it for me, everyone. If you have a second, I would really appreciate it. If you could leave a good review on whatever platform it is that you listen to Apple, podcast, Spotify, Google, YouTube, whatever it is, that would be a tremendous help to the show. And as always, if you ever have any feedback, you’re welcome to email me directly at info@thehydrogenpodcast.com. And as always, take care. Stay safe. I’ll talk to you later.
Hey, this is Paul. I hope you liked this podcast. If you did and want to hear more. I’d appreciate it if you would either. Subscribe to this channel on YouTube, or connect with your favorite platform through my website at www.thehydrogenpodcast.com. Thanks for listening. I very much appreciate it. Have a great day.
