Paul Rodden • Season: 2025 • Episode: 401
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Welcome to The Hydrogen Podcast!
The hydrogen economy is accelerating! In this episode of The Hydrogen Podcast, I dive into two major developments shaping the future of hydrogen:
✅ GOP Support for Clean Energy Tax Credits 🏛️ – 21 House Republicans push to preserve Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives, ensuring hydrogen remains cost-competitive with diesel and natural gas.
✅ RWE & TotalEnergies Sign Germany’s Largest Hydrogen Offtake Deal 🇩🇪 – A 15-year agreement for 30,000 metric tons of green hydrogen annually, proving hydrogen’s role in industrial decarbonization.
💡 How does this impact hydrogen investors, industry leaders, and energy markets? Let’s break down the economics, infrastructure, and long-term impact of these groundbreaking deals.
📢 What do you think about these hydrogen developments? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
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Paul Rodden
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Transcript:
Today I’m diving into two transformative stories reshaping the landscape of clean energy. First, I’ll explore growing Republican support in Congress for clean energy tax credits, as reported by pv magazine USA, a shift with profound implications for hydrogen investment. Then, I’ll dissect a landmark 15-year green hydrogen offtake agreement between RWE and TotalEnergies, announced by RWE, showcasing hydrogen’s industrial might. These developments—policy backing and industry action—are accelerating hydrogen’s role in decarbonizing transport and manufacturing. All of this on todays Hydrogen Podcast.
“Our first story, from pv magazine USA on March 10, 2025, signals a seismic shift: ‘Republican Congressional Support of Clean Energy Tax Credits is Growing.’ A letter signed by 21 House Republicans, spearheaded by Representative Andrew Garbarino of New York, urges Congress to preserve the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) tax credits—key drivers of hydrogen’s economic viability. Let’s unpack the technical and economic stakes, because this isn’t just politics—it’s the backbone of hydrogen’s scale-up.
The IRA, enacted in 2022, offers a suite of incentives: the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for clean energy equipment, the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for renewable generation, and the 45V credit for clean hydrogen production. The 45V is the star here—up to $3 per kilogram for hydrogen with a carbon intensity below 0.45 kg CO2e per kg H2, dropping to $0.60 per kilogram at 4 kg CO2e. That’s tailored for green hydrogen from electrolysis, aiming for the DOE’s Hydrogen Shot goal of $1 per kilogram by 2030. The ITC covers 30%-50% of electrolyzer and renewable project costs (e.g., solar panels at $0.50/watt), while the PTC offers up to 2.6 cents per kWh for wind—stackable with 45V for integrated systems.
Economically, this is a juggernaut. The Treasury and Rhodium Group peg IRA-driven clean energy investments at $382 billion since 2022, with hydrogen claiming a growing share—$10-$15 billion by early 2025, per Wood Mackenzie estimates. Consider a 100-megawatt electrolyzer plant: $70-$100 million to build, producing 3,500 tons yearly at 50 kWh per kilogram (175 GWh of electricity). The ITC cuts costs by $21-$30 million; 45V adds $10.5 million annually at $3 per kilogram. With green hydrogen at $3-$5 per kilogram without credits, this drops it to $1-$2, rivaling blue hydrogen’s $1.50-$2 and undercutting diesel’s $4-$5 per gallon energy equivalent. For heavy transport, a Class 8 truck with a 500-mile range uses 15 tons yearly—$45,000 at $3 per kilogram versus $65,000 for diesel, saving $20,000 per truck annually. Scale that to 10,000 trucks: $200 million in savings.
The Republican letter—signed by 21 of 222 House GOP members, up from 8 in January—frames this as ‘energy affordability’ and ‘security.’ Rep. Garbarino’s Long Island district thrives on manufacturing—think Nel Hydrogen’s electrolyzer gigafactory in Rochester, New York, a $400 million project creating 300 jobs, reliant on ITC. Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s district hosts 50 hydrogen projects—$50 billion potential by 2035—leaning on 45V to decarbonize refineries and fuel cell buses. The U.S. imports 70% of electrolyzer components from China; preserving credits keeps that $5 billion market domestic, per BloombergNEF.
Technically, hydrogen’s ecosystem thrives on this. Electrolysis needs 50-55 kWh per kilogram—$2.50-$2.75 at 5-cent-per-kWh solar, $1.50-$1.65 at 3-cent wind. The PTC boosts wind farms (40% capacity factor, 3 GW installed in 2024), while ITC funds battery storage—$150/kWh cost, per NREL—ensuring hourly renewable matching mandated by 45V rules. A 100-MW plant with 50 MW of solar ($25 million), 50 MW of wind ($75 million), and 20 MWh of storage ($3 million) totals $103 million; ITC slashes it to $70 million. Output: 3,500 tons at $10.5 million revenue, plus $10.5 million in credits—20% IRR over 20 years.
Critics—like Roth Capital’s Philip Shen—warn of a 2025 PTC phase-down to 1.5 cents per kWh, citing GOP fiscal hawks. But Jessica Tocco of A10 Associates counters: ‘Repeal’s cost-benefit doesn’t add up—$382 billion in projects, 300,000 jobs.’ The letter’s ‘scalpel’ approach suggests tweaks—say, tighter carbon thresholds—over a sledgehammer cut. For hydrogen, this is stability. The American Clean Power Association notes 80% of IRA projects are in GOP districts—think Plug Power’s $1 billion Georgia plant. This isn’t partisan; it’s pragmatic, and hydrogen’s the winner—ready to scale trucks, steel, and ammonia with a policy tailwind.”
“Next, we head to Europe, where RWE and TotalEnergies sealed a landmark deal, announced March 12, 2025, on RWE’s site. This 15-year offtake agreement commits RWE to supply 30,000 metric tons of green hydrogen annually from its 300-megawatt Lingen, Germany, electrolyzer to TotalEnergies’ Leuna refinery, starting 2027 with full delivery by 2030. At 450,000 tons total, it’s Germany’s biggest green hydrogen contract to date—let’s break down the tech and economics.
Start with the plant: Lingen’s 300-MW PEM electrolyzer, part of the GET H2 Nucleus, uses proton exchange membrane technology—high efficiency (80-85%), fast ramp-up (seconds), ideal for variable renewables. At 50 kWh per kilogram, it consumes 1.5 GWh daily—547.5 GWh yearly—to produce 30,000 tons (82 tons/day). RWE powers it with 1 GW of wind (400 MW onshore, 600 MW offshore) and 500 MW of solar, yielding 2,000 GWh annually at a 40% capacity factor. Excess power feeds the grid or storage; EU rules demand hourly renewable matching, so RWE’s Gronau-Epe cavern—1 million cubic meters, holding 150-200 tons—buffers dips. Delivery runs via a 130-km pipeline to Leuna by 2027, tying into Germany’s 600-km H2 backbone by 2032—$5 billion total cost, per BMWK.
The tech’s green cred shines. Leuna’s refinery, processing 11 million tons of crude yearly, uses 50,000 tons of hydrogen—mostly gray (8-10 kg CO2e/kg). Swapping 30,000 tons for green cuts 300,000 tons of CO2 annually—10 million tons over 15 years, per RWE’s 10:1 emissions ratio. That’s 4.5 million cars off the road, aligning with TotalEnergies’ 500,000-ton green hydrogen goal by 2030 across six European refineries. Efficiency matters: PEM’s 80% stacks beat alkaline’s 65%, saving 10 kWh per kilogram—$0.50 at 5-cent power, $15 million yearly at scale.
Economically, this is a powerhouse. Lingen’s $250-$300 million build cost—say $275 million—reflects $800-$1,000 per kW for PEM, per IRENA. At $3 per kilogram (current green hydrogen price), 30,000 tons yields $90 million yearly—$1.35 billion over 15 years. Costs: 547.5 GWh at 4-cent wind ($21.9 million), $20 million in O&M, $5 million in pipeline fees—$46.9 million total, netting $43.1 million profit annually (15% margin). Scale drops production to $2 per kilogram by 2030—$60 million revenue, $13.1 million profit, 20% IRR with EU subsidies ($50 million from Germany’s €3 billion H2 fund). TotalEnergies saves $30 million yearly on EU ETS carbon credits ($100/ton in 2025), scaling to $150 million across 150,000 tons by 2030.
For heavy transport, it’s a goldmine. 30,000 tons fuels 2,000 Class 8 trucks yearly (15 tons each), saving $40 million over diesel at $20,000 per truck. RWE’s Markus Krebber calls it ‘proof hydrogen works with incentives’—Germany’s H2Global auctions and TotalEnergies’ 5 GW of wind deals with RWE in the U.S. and Europe back that up. Technical risks? Grid upgrades lag—$10 billion needed by 2030—and storage scaling takes time. But with 10 GW of RWE’s U.S. clean power online, this is a transatlantic model. It’s not a pilot; it’s hydrogen at industrial scale, setting the pace for 2030.”
Alright, that’s it for me, everyone. If you have a second, I would really appreciate it if you could leave a good review on whatever platform you listen to. Apple podcasts, Spotify, Google, YouTube, etc. That would be a tremendous help to the show. And as always if you ever have any feedback, you are welcome to email me directly at info@thehydrogepodcast.com. So until next time, keep your eyes up and honor one another.
